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2024-12-14 00:21:45

The central government has decided to adjust the fiscal policy for next year: increase the deficit, special national debt and special debt quota. According to CCTV news broadcast, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. When deploying the fiscal policy for next year, the meeting said that it is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy, improve the fiscal deficit ratio, increase the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, increase the issuance and use of local government special bonds, optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, and firmly grasp the bottom line of "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. According to the above-mentioned meeting arrangements, in 2025, deficit ratio will exceed 3%, ultra-long-term special national debt will exceed 1 trillion yuan, and the amount of new special debt will also exceed 3.9 trillion yuan. This means that fiscal policy will be more active next year. This is also in line with market expectations. A number of interviewed finance and taxation experts predict that deficit ratio may be 3.5%~4% next year, the ultra-long-term special national debt is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, and the amount of special debt is expected to be around 4.5 trillion yuan. Of course, this is only an expert's prediction or suggestion, and the final actual relevant data still needs to be announced during the National People's Congress in March next year. (CBN)The settlement price of international crude oil rose by over 2%. As of the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil delivered in January 2025 in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.70 US dollars to close at 70.29 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.48%; London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2025 rose by $1.33 to close at $73.52 per barrel, an increase of 1.84%.The concept of high-speed copper connection is very popular. Recently, benefiting from the explosive demand growth of AI computing power, the market funds focus on the supporting concept of high-speed copper connection in the upper reaches of NVIDIA. On December 11th, a number of high-speed copper connection concept stocks rose sharply, with Zhaolong Interconnect rising by 12.58%, Woer Nuclear Materials by 8.70%, Shenyu Shares by 4.77% and Derun Electronics by 4.99%. High-speed copper connection, also known as high-speed connector, is a core data transmission component, which constitutes an efficient signal transmission system. Manager Public Offering of Fund said that the concept stocks of high-speed copper connection continued to rise, which actually benefited from the explosion of demand for AI computing power. Invista once introduced at GTC2024 that NVL72 uses copper cable interconnection to save costs significantly compared with optical modules. Shanxi Securities predicts that the new market of high-speed copper cable brought by GB200 will be close to 6 billion US dollars in 2025, and the usage scenarios of high-speed copper cable will continue to expand. It is found that a number of public and private equity funds have heavily invested in the concept stocks of high-speed copper connections that have risen recently in the third quarter. There are also fund managers who heavily invested in related stocks in the second quarter, but significantly reduced their positions in the third quarter, missing the rise of concept stocks in the fourth quarter. There are also some fund managers who continue to be optimistic about the stimulation of the demand of upstream industries caused by the outbreak of AI computing power, and have successively added high-speed copper connection concept stocks. (Securities Times)


Central Economic Work Conference: Next year, a more active fiscal policy will be implemented, the fiscal deficit ratio will be raised, and extra-long special government bonds will be issued. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to maintain stable economic growth next year, maintain overall stability in employment and prices, maintain a basic balance of international payments, and promote the simultaneous growth of residents' income and economic growth. The meeting demanded that next year, we should persist in striving for progress in stability, promoting stability through progress, keeping integrity and innovation, establishing before breaking, system integration and coordination. It is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy, improve the fiscal deficit ratio, increase the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, increase the issuance and use of local government special bonds, optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, and secure the bottom line of "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. (CCTV News)Dominion Bank of Toronto: Trust Canada lowered the prime rate by 50 basis points to 5.45%.Yibin Paper: There is uncertainty in the acquisition of 67% equity of Acetic Fiber Company. Yibin Paper issued a risk warning announcement, and the company plans to acquire 67% equity of Sichuan Pushi Cellulose Acetate Co., Ltd. held by related party Yibin Pushi Group Co., Ltd. As of July 31, 2024, according to the audited financial data, the total liabilities of Acetic Fiber Company were 971,116,800 yuan, and the asset-liability ratio was 88.31%. It is expected that related funds will flow out in the future. The transaction has yet to be reviewed and approved by the company's shareholders' meeting and procedures such as handling industrial and commercial change registration, and subsequent implementation is uncertain. According to the data released by CSI official website, the latest P/B ratio of papermaking and packaging owned by the company is 1.69 times, and the latest P/B ratio of the company is 8.43 times. The current P/B ratio of the company is quite different from that of the same industry.


According to opinion polls, Chile's inflation rate is expected to be 3.5% in the next 12 months.Dollar deposits and wealth management are popular again. Experts suggest paying attention to exchange risk. Although it is in the cycle of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, dollar deposit products are still attractive to investors. Since December, a number of bank wealth management subsidiaries have intensively put on shelves US dollar wealth management products. Judging from the rate of return, the performance benchmark of some US dollar fixed-income wealth management products currently launched is close to 5%, but the performance benchmark of RMB wealth management products with the same risk level is mostly around 2%. According to the statistics of Puyi standard data, as of December 9, there were 1,312 surviving products in US dollar financing, and the surviving scale of US dollar financing reached 281.927 billion yuan, which has doubled from the surviving scale of 140.351 billion yuan at the end of December last year. In addition, although banks have previously lowered the interest rate of dollar deposit products, from the current point of view, the interest rate of some banks' dollar deposits remains above 4%, attracting many customers to buy. According to industry insiders, under the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the main reason for the high heat of dollar wealth management and dollar deposits is the exchange rate expectation of a strong dollar. If the market expects the US dollar to appreciate or remain stable, holding US dollar assets (such as US dollar wealth management and US dollar deposits) can benefit from the potential exchange rate appreciation even if interest rates fall. In addition, in order to diversify risks, some investors choose to allocate part of their funds to US dollar assets to realize diversification of asset allocation. (Securities Daily)Microsoft expects to accrue about $800 million in impairment charges related to GM Cruise in the second fiscal quarter, and Microsoft expects to accrue about $800 million in impairment charges in the second fiscal quarter, which is related to the company's minority equity investment in GM Cruise. This will have a negative impact of about 9 cents on Microsoft's earnings per share in the second quarter.

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